The President's Crystal Ball

Hurricanes are rather unpredictable things. Ophelia's erratic path today departs only in degree, not in character, from the paths of these monstrous storms.

Let us assume, for the purposes of argument, that hurricanes cannot be accurately predicted more than a day or two in advance. What are the implications for what happened in New Orleans in late August?

Specifically, one could question why exactly State and local evacuation plans called for the need to evacuate communities 72 hours in advance? Since when do hurricanes telegraph their plans three days ahead of time?

If they do not, and if one argues that mayors should not declare emergency until a path is determined, rather than probable, then what is the purpose of the 72 hour requirement?

As a matter of fact, probabilities are what the weather forecasters are responsible for.

Those who blame the President for not sending troops into the hurricane zone ahead of time (risking their destruction) must also answer for how exactly, if the Mayor of New Orleans could not be expected to evacuate his own city, the President, through some form of prescience, was supposed to predeploy his troops to New Orleans in lieu of Mayor Nagin's and Gov. Blanco's failed security measures.

Presuming that the President's crystal ball was broken that day, should some way be found to blame the First Lady? Why should she be exempt from the treatment accorded Nancy Reagan, whose taste in White House china was subject to much ridicule? Offered for one's consideration: Blame attributable to the Reagans!

Politics is strange, and I wouldn't be too surprised if someone actually took me up on this offer.